The election: EPIC FÁIL
The following are some thoughts about the general election. They’re in no particular order and all of them are up for discussion.
I had a walk on part in the election, working with Dylan Haskins and his small band of intrepid door-knockers, video producers and social media experts, in Dublin South East; the bearpit of Irish politics. He didn’t win, but we ran a brilliant campaign; probably the highest profile in the country. It was a fascinating project to be involved in, and has made me think about politics and political communications in a very different way.
On a macro level, the election was not an endorsement for Fine Gael, their five point plan or their leader. It was a vote to reject Fianna Fail. No more. It was the electorate’s opportunity to punish them for wrecking the economy, and the best way to show that punishment was to vote for their Civil War enemy.
Neither Enda Kenny nor Fine Gael should assume any mandate when they piece together their government. I believe that they were simply the party to which a disgruntled electorate turned to get rid of the memory of Ahern, Cowen and Lenihan, and for whom they voted, with little enthusiasm. Even though it is early days, I am not convinced this is going to be a government which inspires people to work for a new period of growth and happiness.
If you look at the economic backdrop to the election, the main party standing against Fianna Fail should have been elected with such an enormous majority that it re-wrote history. It is incredible that despite the money and resources that Fine Gael pumped into the election, and the terrible track record of Fianna Fail, they still needed Labour to secure a majority. Fine Gael reportedly spent over €2m on this election, but for what? Their social media platform was derided; their leader elected to sit-out a key debate and their message was hardly inspiring.
Many expected General Election 2011 to become one of radical solutions and a polarisation of the electorate, but in times of crisis, people do not seek radical solutions, they seek stability and calmness. Something solid to hold on to. They replaced Fianna Fail with Fine Gael, and the Greens with Labour. It was a rational belief that business as usual and politics as usual would help more than radicalism.
This is not the end of Fianna Fail. I was in the UK in 1997 and many people predicted that the Conservatives had been beaten so badly that a recovery was impossible. It took them a few leaders, but they got back. Fianna Fail will be the same. Simply too many people want them to return, and they will. Irish politics needs them. When the electorate get sick of Fine Gael (which is inevitable – pendulums always swing) they will go back to the comfort of Fianna Fail.
Political Reform
It was good that we heard a lot in the election campaign about the need for political reform, but I wonder how much of it will ever happen. Opposition parties always call for reform of the political process, but once that process elects them, they suddenly see the merits of the status quo, and go silent.
If we are to reform politics, it should begin with electoral reform. Firstly, it needs to be easier to get on to the electoral register. If Revenue can offer an online service, so should the Department of Environment and the city council. I’m not yet convinced by the argument of allowing emigrants to vote, but I am certain that everyone who lives in Ireland should be able to go to the polling station, working on the assumption they are on the electoral register.
Secondly, we need to clean up election finance because it’s now clear that money does translate into electoral success. It needs to be easier for independent candidates to fight an election with similar opportunities to the political parties. The financial gap between even the best funded independents and the political parties is too large, and this is distorting the election.
The Haskins campaign, comprising of volunteers and funded entirely from individual donations, proved that it’s possible to run an amateur campaign without it being amateurish. By thinking cleverly, we proved it is possible to run an inexpensive campaign without it being cheap. But when you’re competing against parties with enormous funds, legions of paid supporters, the backing of the best marketing companies and other mercenary advisors, the odds become stacked against you.
The campaign
For me, the election was an incredible experience. I’ve spent too many elections, sitting in passive stupor in front of the TV. It was great to be involved. I knew that by getting involved and having a stake in the result, there’d be good and bad moments but I had never expected how close together they could be. Within moments of feeling elated with how the campaign was going, I could be plunged into morbid despair.
Perhaps an ability to ride out those emotions comes from experience, but it speaks volumes for the strength of character of Dylan, that he maintained equanimity throughout it all, and indeed seemed to relish it all.
In the 1960s, a week became a long time in politics. In the mid-1990s, as campaigns became mediated rather than direct, a day became a long time. Now, in 2011, an instant can make an enormous difference to the fate of a campaign. The wheels have come off the news cycle, and within an instant, news becomes commentary, opinion becomes fact.
Received wisdoms become consolidated within a second of them being created, and with more people becoming semi-informed, in this election perception became more important than truth. It is almost impossible for any campaign to fight against perception in such a short period of time, if resources are limited.
Nonetheless, the level of engagement between elector and candidate is quite extraordinary. I was impressed at the number of people who emailed Dylan with their questions and genuinely wanted to hear his thoughts. In fact, so many requests arrived, that we ended up putting the questions and answers online. “On the doorsteps” is a political cliché, but on the doorsteps, I was also impressed at the level of engagement we got with people who wanted to talk politics. The turnout in Dublin South East was low, but the level of political engagement during the campaign was high. I’m not yet sure why that interest didn’t correlate into turnout and it is something I need to think about further.
2011 was the incomplete revolution. Both the manner of the campaign and the result moved Irish politics only a fraction, but I believe there is a pattern of change which will move a notch further at the next election. In Dublin South East, we set the benchmark for transparency, accountability and engagement at a higher level than anyone else would ever have done. We campaigned in a new way; supplementing the legwork of canvassing with the awesome power of good media engagement. Other candidates, many of whom were much more successful at the polls, were rightly jealous of our campaign.
Would I ever stand for election? No way. I couldn’t do it. I really love politics and I will work on campaigns in the future, learning from this one, and I know that if Dylan calls again, he’ll have my support in an instant.
About Me
Between 2005 and 2009, I headed the research and policy development function of an industry representative organisation, based in Dublin. Prior to joining the business sector, I worked in a number of academic research institutions in the UK and Ireland, where I wrote on the politics of urban regeneration and city governance. I hold a doctorate in Politics from the University of Manchester, a Masters degree in Social Research Methods also from Manchester, and a Masters in Political and Public Communications from DCU. I am a member of the Public Relations Institute of Ireland and the Irish Political Studies Association.
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Reports
- Jul 10 » July 2010 Rent or Buy Report
- Apr 10 » April 2010 Employment Data
- Mar 10 » March 2010 Economic Briefing
- Feb 10 » February 2010 Economic Briefing
- Jan 10 » January 2010 Economic Briefing
- Dec 09 » Monthly Tax Receipts
Recent Posts
- Jan 12 » Things I didn’t do during the Celtic Tiger
- Jun 11 » Why you can be a Dubliner, and still love Temple Bar
- Mar 11 » The election: EPIC FÁIL
- Feb 11 » The Dublin Pub: Myth and reality
- Feb 11 » Tips for conference speaking: Stand up, speak up, shut up
- Jan 11 » Channel 4 News Articles
- Jan 11 » Sneachta
- Nov 10 » So, where are we? What have we learned?
- Nov 10 » What a Difference a Year Makes
- Oct 10 » The Death of Paper
- Sep 10 » The Wheels on the Bus
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Peter Stafford
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