In 2006, the economy of Ireland changed. Universal growth across all areas – tax income, spending, employment, exports and imports – stopped and some commentators began to vocalise their concerns that perhaps the economy was not as healthy as many people wished to believe. After a decade of telling good news, many in the media found themselves suddenly telling a different narrative. As the data came in, it became clear that the business and economics pages of the newspaper looked different (more red ink than before), and the headlines of the six one news would be telling a less than happy story. George Lee, David McWilliams, and all the other familiar faces who had told us the happy story of the Celtic Tiger suddenly stopped looking so happy as the announced job cuts, tax increases, falling house prices, bank difficulties and recession.

A strange thing then happened. Rather than accepting the basis for those commentators’ pronouncements, they were blamed for talking down the economy. Between 2006 and 2008 perhaps one of the worst crimes one could commit in Ireland was to be seen talking down the economy. George Lee in particular was accused by many of actually creating the economic turmoil he described on the news. We don’t blame the weather forecaster for rain, so why blame the economic commentator for the recession? Between 2006 and 2008, many of us preferred to focus on the teller of the story, rather than the story itself.

Bertie Ahern told a Ictu conference in 2007 that he often wondered why the “cribbers and moaners” didn’t just commit suicide. Wow. But, for me, what is really interesting is the laughter and applause his comments received. You can see the clip of Ahern’s speech on Gavin Sheridan’s excellent blog:

http://www.gavinsblog.com/2009/08/29/bertie-ahern-just-commit-suicide-lads/

What would have happened if the cribbers and moaners had committed suicide and the only commentators left were those who were endlessly optimistic? Would the recession have been averted? Would we be back into a period of uniform growth? Would new jobs be created? Would the transatlantic flights be full of shoppers rather than emigrants? Hardly. While it is true that economic activity is largely sentiment based, and thus open to being suppressed if the prevailing opinion of the day is negative, we should give equal credence to those who are telling a story we don’t like. Ireland won’t be served if the only people who are listened to are those who are willing to be optimistic irrespective of what the facts are telling them.

It is the tale, not those who tell it. Some of the latest economic indicators suggest the bottom of the economy has been reached – tax receipts are on track, employment has stopped falling so rapidly etc etc – and over the next few months, we are going to be bombarded by commentary suggesting the economy is growing, shrinking or stagnating. This diversity of opinion is good. The more commentary we have, the better. So long as the commentary is fact-based, we shouldn’t be afraid of people who are telling us things we don’t want to hear. For the sake of the economy, we need the cribbers and moaners more than ever.